Early returns from Tuesday’s election showed voters of five Bay Area counties supporting a regional sales tax measure, upon which the future of public transit in the region hinges.
The Regional Transit Measure, or RTM, proposed a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties as well as a one-cent sales tax in San Francisco starting April 2027.
The proposed tax would raise an estimated $980 million annually for 14 years to fund the region’s public transit agencies, which are struggling with massive financial deficits. Failure of the measure would result in the closure of train stations and reductions in bus services around the Bay Area, transit agencies have said.
The measure requires a simple majority of votes to pass. As of 9 p.m. Tuesday, 61.4% of counted votes across the five counties were in favor of the measure.
If the measure passes, revenue will go to BART, Muni, Caltrain, Alameda-Contra Costa Transit, the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, the San Francisco Bay Ferry, Golden Gate Transit, and other transportation agencies operating in the five counties.
Crucial funding at a critical time
The measure appeared on the ballot at a precarious time for transit agencies, as ridership has not recovered since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
BART is suffering an ongoing structural deficit of $350 million-$400 million, and the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, which oversees Muni, is staring at annual deficits of more than $300 million.
Supporters of the measure said that RTM is critical to maintain operations at current levels.
Without the RTM funds, BART has announced that 10 BART stations with the lowest ridership could be shut down as early as January 2027.
These are Castro Valley, North Concord, Orinda, Pittsburg Center, San Bruno, South Hayward, South San Francisco, Warm Springs/South Fremont, West Dublin/Pleasanton, and the Oakland International Airport stations. Frequency of trains along all lines will also be reduced, and by July 2027, five more stations could close, according to BART.
Across the Bay, Muni could cut up to 20 bus routes and service reductions could double wait times.
Instead of imposing a sales tax, opponents of the measure want transit agencies to bring their operating costs under control by pausing or canceling Valley Link — a proposed rail project that would connect the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station with northern San Joaquin County — and the proposed BART extension into downtown San Jose.