On Nov. 3, voters in five Bay Area counties will vote on a regional sales tax measure that, if it fails, could prompt local transit agencies to close train stations and cut bus service.
What happens if the measure passes
If passed, the Regional Transit Measure, or RTM, will impose a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties as well as a one-cent sales tax in San Francisco starting April 2027.
The tax would raise an estimated $980 million annually for 14 years to fund the region’s public transit agencies, which are struggling with massive financial deficits. Revenue would go to BART, Muni, Caltrain, Alameda-Contra Costa Transit, the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, the San Francisco Bay Ferry, Golden Gate Transit, and other transportation agencies operating in the five counties.
In California, a regional measure for a new sales tax would normally require a two-thirds majority approval if the state Legislature directly places it on a ballot. Transit advocates, however, chose to collect signatures to make the sales tax a citizen-initiated ballot measure that would lower the threshold to a simple majority of votes cast across the five counties.
The RTM received more than 241,000 signatures, exceeding the 186,000-signature threshold required to qualify for the ballot.
In 2025, state Sens. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, and Jesse Arreguin, D-Oakland, introduced Senate Bill 63 in the Legislature to “preserve and improve public transit service” in the Bay Area. When SB 63 passed, it established the Public Transit Revenue Measure District, a regional entity encompassing the five counties, to administer funds collected through the RTM if it passes.
Voters will decide whether to approve the RTM at a precarious time for transit agencies, as ridership has not recovered since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
BART is suffering an ongoing structural deficit of $350-400 million, and the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, which oversees Muni, is staring at annual deficits of more than $300 million.
Supporters of the measure said that the RTM is critical to maintain operations at current levels.
What happens if it fails
Without the RTM funds, BART has announced that 10 BART stations with the lowest ridership could be shut down as early as January 2027.
These are Castro Valley, North Concord, Orinda, Pittsburg Center, San Bruno, South Hayward, South San Francisco, Warm Springs/South Fremont, West Dublin/Pleasanton, and the Oakland International Airport stations. Frequency of trains along all lines will also be reduced, and by July 2027, five more stations could close, according to BART.
Across the Bay, Muni could cut up to 20 bus routes and service reductions could double wait times.
“If this measure fails, we could see major station closures and drastic service cuts for BART, AC Transit, Muni, and Caltrain,” said the argument in favor of the measure. “If this measure fails, thousands of people would be forced onto our already congested roads and freeways every single day — worsening air pollution, making traffic jams start earlier and last longer, and resulting in most of us spending more time behind the wheel and less time at home with our families.”
Among supporters of the measure are Oakland City Councilmember Zac Unger and representatives of the League of Women Voters Bay Area and the Greenbelt Alliance.
According to an impartial analysis of the measure by legal counsel for the Public Transit Revenue Measure District, the allocation of revenue to different transit agencies within each county will differ.
For example, 65% of the revenue generated in Alameda County will go toward BART, while in Santa Clara County, 85% of the revenue will be directed towards the VTA and repavement projects for roads used by public transit, the impartial analysis said.
According to the accountability requirements laid out in SB 63, BART, Muni, AC Transit, and Caltrain will conduct financial efficiency reviews, and noncompliance could result in a withholding of funds.
Oversight will rest with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, which is the transportation planning and financing agency for the nine-county Bay Area.
But opponents of the measure questioned if the accountability guardrails are strong or independent enough. Representatives of the Alameda County and Contra Costa County taxpayers’ associations are among the authors of the ballot argument against the RTM.
“BART, Muni, AC Transit and Caltrain each get seats on the committee overseeing their financial efficiency,” the argument against the measure reads. “It’s the fox guarding the henhouse.”
Instead of imposing a sales tax, opponents of the measure want transit agencies to bring their operating costs under control by pausing or canceling Valley Link — a proposed rail project that would connect the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station with northern San Joaquin County — and the proposed BART extension into downtown San Jose.