THE FARMING COMMUNITIES along the Lower Pajaro River that divides Monterey and Santa Cruz counties have suffered five multi-million dollar floods since a system of levees was built in 1949. Now, researchers are building a dynamic virtual version of the region to simulate flooding scenarios over time, while taking account of a variety of factors such as climate risk.
Led by UC Berkeley researchers Anna Serra-Llobet and Adda Athanasopoulos-Zekkos — working with members of Austria’s Vienna Research Center for Visual Computing — the project is developing a digital twin, or a dynamic virtual simulation, of the Lower Pajaro River Valley, known locally as “the strawberry capital of the world.”
The model will allow researchers and planners to simulate flooding in 3-D over time and test different management strategies such as setback levees, built farther back from a river to widen the natural flood plain.
A March 2023 breach in an earthen levee during a major storm submerged strawberry fields, forced the evacuation of 3,500 residents in the town of Pajaro, and caused $300 million in damage, according to the Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency.
The digital twin allows scientists to study how quickly water rises, judge ecological consequences and manipulate infrastructure over time. Such changes can be difficult to visualize on traditional two-dimensional flood maps.
“Interactive 3D visualization makes it easier to understand where water goes, which buildings or roads may be affected and how a situation develops over time.”
Irmgard Fuchs, researcher
“Flooding is spatial and dynamic, but conventional two-dimensional maps can remain quite abstract, particularly for non-experts,” said Irmgard Fuchs, a member of the Vienna team. “Interactive 3D visualization makes it easier to understand where water goes, which buildings or roads may be affected and how a situation develops over time.”
Pajaro is “a particularly relevant test case,” she said, because the area is currently undergoing $599 million in flood-protection upgrades.
The stakes extend far beyond Pajaro. About 1 in 5 Californians live in areas at risk of flooding, making it the most widespread natural hazard in the state — even more than earthquakes, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
UC Berkeley researchers say climate change is altering flood patterns by changing precipitation and contributing to stronger atmospheric rivers that carry massive amounts of moisture from the tropics to California.
This story originally appeared in The Daily Californian. It was reported as part of the newspaper’s summer journalism intensive training program for high school students, The Berkeley Angle. Keerthi Eraniyan’s participation was made possible by Contra Costa Youth Journalism. Marein Terfort is an 11th grader at Rivendell Academy of Fremont.
This story was also republished in CCSpin.