Economy rather than abortion influencing most midterm voters, according to survey

SINCE THE SUPREME Court’s June 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion, election observers have raised questions about whether and how the issue of abortion will influence the outcome of the November midterm elections.

Some early survey evidence from May to July suggested a surge in support among Democrats and reproductive-aged women for abortion rights. So too did the results from an August 2022 Kansas referendum on abortion, where voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have banned abortion. Democrats also overperformed compared with 2020 — that is, earning a higher proportion of the vote than they did in the 2020 election — in a series of congressional special elections following Dobbs.