Representatives from 34 nonprofit organizations and housing agencies in nine Bay Area counties are working on a 2028 ballot measure that could generate billions to finance affordable housing projects.
The housing advocates met Monday at the College of Marin in Novato to discuss voter sentiment, potential funding strategies and alternatives if a ballot initiative does not move forward.
A similar initiative was attempted through a bond measure in 2024, but voters never saw it. Regional Measure 4 was pulled from the ballot due to a technical error. It would have authorized $20 billion in funding for about 70,000 apartments and homes.
If a 2028 regional housing measure were to be approved by voters, the money would go to cities and counties either directly or through grants from the Bay Area Housing Finance Authority, which is nested within the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Association of Bay Area Governments.
“Our housing challenges don’t end at a city or county; they flow across the different counties.”
Jennifer Martinez, San Francisco Foundation
The objective is to help local governments build enough to meet the housing goals established by state law.
“Our housing challenges don’t end at a city or county; they flow across the different counties,” said Jennifer Martinez, vice president of policy and innovation at the San Francisco Foundation, in her opening remarks. “Because we have a housing authority agency at the regional level, we could have more tools and resources at a scale that no one has.”
The authority to spur affordable development
Established by the state Legislature in 2019, the authority supports tenant protections and the production, preservation and protection of affordable housing, including housing for low-income and very low-income residents.
It has done predevelopment work for several projects, including one that would bring 97 new homes to seniors in Oakland’s Chinatown and 158 affordable homes to South San Francisco. The authority also created a program for developers to convert a portion of their housing projects into affordable units.
In a 2024 report, the authority said the Bay Area needs $9.7 billion to create over 40,000 homes that were in predevelopment.
“Overall, funding has become a real bottleneck,” said Jenny Silva, executive director of the housing nonprofit Call Marin Home. “Here, in Marin County, we have several 100% affordable housing projects that have been approved but have not yet been able to move forward due to a lack of funds.”
Last week, voters passed a statewide housing measure called Proposition 1 which will bring $11 billion for affordable housing.
To get access to Prop. 1 money, local governments need to provide a matching fund, Silva said, and a regional measure could provide the local government match that’s needed to get the state grant.
“Also, that funding cannot be used for tenant protections or anti-displacement measures,” she said.
Prop. 1 is a start, but less than needed
Jen Klose, executive director of the nonprofit Generation Housing, said Prop. 1 will help, but it’s a limited amount of money.
The regional measure attempted in 2024 would have brought $20 billion to nine counties — Marin, Sonoma, Napa, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo and San Francisco — while Prop. 1 funds would bring half that amount for the entire state.
“It’s super competitive too,” Klose said about Prop 1 funds. “The smaller North Bay counties could get very little.”
Silva referenced a 2024 report funded by the Marin Community Foundation that estimated West Marin needed 1,000 units for people who make $65,000 a year or less, which was almost three times the amount required by the state for all income levels.
“There’s a huge need for housing in West Marin,” she said. “They can’t rely on my tax dollars for their projects because they’re too small.”
Participants also discussed expanding the proposed measure to cover tenant protections, permanent supportive housing, infrastructure costs and programs that promote homeownership, as well as ways to speed funding for projects that have already received permits. After collecting enough signatures, the regional measure would need to be signed by the governor to qualify for the ballot by October 2027.
