WITH A TOTAL of about 95,000 ballots received so far as of Friday, San Joaquin County’s registrar of voters is predicting a solid turnout to decide Proposition 50, the statewide measure that would redistrict congressional seats.
Registrar Olivia Hale said that she expects a turnout in the range of 55% to 75% of registered voters by the time all the ballots are counted. “I still am guessing that it will be within that range,” she said.
Election Day is Tuesday, but voters have had weeks to mail in their ballots or deposit them in drop boxes. Plus they can still vote in person. Hale noted the 55% prediction was similar to turnout for the 2022 election, the unsuccessful attempt to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom, in which the county’s turnout was 53.4%.
By Wednesday, 83,846 ballots had already been processed. They were followed by about 12,000 more, both from the mail and drop boxes, she said. All told, that’s about 22% of registered voters. As of August 2024, the county had 376,181 registered.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. Proposition 50 would redivide congressional districts to favor Democrats. Newsom has pushed the measure as a response to a similar move in Texas. The legislature in the Lone Star State acted at the behest of President Donald Trump, who hopes redistricting will allow Republicans to hold or augment their narrow lead in the House of Representatives.
When it come to politics, San Joaquin County is hardly predictable. It is now represented by two members of Congress. Proposition 50 could divvy it up into as many as five under the redistricting plan, which may alarm some voters.
On one hand, Democrats held a large registration edge in the county as of 2024. On the other, Trump got more votes than his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Kamala Harris, in the 2024 general election.
Statewide, a poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found that 60% of likely voters support Proposition 50 and 38% oppose. The poll found the results are “highly partisan,” with more than 90% of Democrats supporting it and more than 90% of Republicans opposed.
This story originally appeared in Stocktonia.