Five months after the release of a major sea level rise adaptation study, the San Rafael City Council heard a presentation of findings and set plans to talk again in three months. Meanwhile, the next king tide event is predicted for Christmas Eve.
At Monday’s council meeting, San Rafael Climate Resilience Director Kate Hagemann presented a short summary of the Community Informed Technical Feasibility Study, which was commissioned in 2023. Previous sea level rise studies involving San Rafael were completed in 1989, 1992, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2024.
Hagemann also announced that the city recently won an advanced assistance grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. She said in an email that the city applied for the grant years ago. The grant would help the city hire a consultant to develop a project that will be eligible for a future FEMA implementation grant.
“This is not a construction grant,” she said in the email. Assuming the city wants to proceed with the grant, the total awarded federal funds would be $957,000 with a $300,000 local match.
At Monday’s meeting, Hagemann discussed the newly completed feasibility study, conducted by the architectural firm Waggonner and Ball, funded with $762,000 from the California State Coastal Conservancy and the Marin Community Foundation.
Like some of the previous studies, it analyzes three infrastructural designs that would protect the city from flooding caused by sea level rise for the next 45 to 75 years: build barrier walls, install a flood gate in the San Rafael Canal, or raise the land with new buildings and parks at the water’s edge.
That third alternative would require acquisition and redevelopment of dozens of waterfront properties, displacing occupants of 86 shoreline buildings and potentially forcing permanent relocation of some residents. It would be the longest to implement and the costliest. It would also be the longest-lasting and potentially generate revenue by increasing property values.
Considering the costs
Ballpark price tags for the three infrastructure alternatives range from $719 million to nearly $2 billion. A “no action” alternative illustrates the damages to highways, buildings and livelihoods to expect when East San Rafael is knee-deep by 2050.
“The numbers that you’re putting up there are very large,” said San Rafael Councilmember Maribeth Bushey. “How realistic do you think it is that a billion dollars or two will be available in a timely way, because tick tock, we’ve only got 25 years before it’s basically too late.”
“We also need to be a strong advocate for regional coordination,” said Councilmember Rachel Kertz.
“It’s very prominent in the staff report that there is no agency or entity responsible for managing coastal flood risks,” said Councilmember Eli Hill. “There are so many intersecting points where grants could be pursued at the federal, state, other levels … that could finance something like this. It seems essential to me that we have an agency that has leadership on this to make certain that it’s coordinating all of those on behalf of the region, including San Rafael and the other municipalities.”
“The sobering outlook is that, oftentimes, significant relief in federal funding support has been after the disaster,” said Interim City Manager Paul Navazio. “It’s part of the building back effort. It’s very hard to get the attention that this issue deserves to avoid those events.”
With the fastest long-term alternative projected to take 10 to 15 years to complete, the new study leads with a list of immediate actions that can temporarily buy time. They include identifying weak points in the riprap levees and replacing them with better materials, continuing to restore wave-absorbing tidal marshes and improving maintenance and upgrades to the pump systems that move water from the Canal neighborhood after flooding.
The Canal is home to a vulnerable Hispanic community of over 13,000 low-income residents. In early January of this year, king tides and storm surge peaked above 8 feet and topped the edge of the Canal, flooding the bowl with Bay water, submerging vehicles and leaving many of its rental residents islanded.
“We asked for help, but no one assisted us, because San Rafael is not prepared to provide aid in these types of emergencies,” said public commenter Marina Palma, Canal community advocate and member of the residents’ Sea Level Rise Working Group. “We don’t want the community to disappear. I ask you, please, help preserve our community right where it stands today. This situation has dragged on, year after year after year; and what will happen is that residents will be forced to self-evict.”
Dreaming of a dry Christmas
Last week, the Canal residents unveiled their own vision for the future that protects the community from displacement. It is tied to the city’s climate adaptation planning, with links to the city’s economic development and housing policy, and it explicitly calls out the risk of displacement due to “green gentrification.” The resident-led report called the 2026 Canal Neighborhood Snapshot was released by the Canal Alliance, a nonprofit that supports Marin County’s Latino community.
Hagemann emphasized that evacuation and emergency plans can be improved before the next rainy season.
“A lot of work has happened on that,” she said. “More work can happen. Our highest tides are expected on Christmas Eve.”
“You know right now, Christmas Eve, that’s when it’s going to happen. Wouldn’t it be great? Sandbags from Santa.”
Councilmember Maribeth Bushey
Councilmember Maribeth Bushey said preparing for king tides is obvious.
“You know right now, Christmas Eve, that’s when it’s going to happen,” Bushey said. “Wouldn’t it be great? Sandbags from Santa.”
Mayor Kate Colin mentioned a new study was released this year by the Transportation Authority of Marin that lists solutions for each jurisdiction in the county, and there is another study being done at the state level by Caltrans.
“Some agencies need to catalog it through their own processes in order to have funding and additional policies follow,” Colin said, with a tone of caution that local jurisdictions be included in large-scale solutions. “How do we ensure that Caltrans thinks beyond just their own infrastructure?”
“I think if anyone hears of more reports going on, we probably need to raise a flag and say, is it really needed?” said Kertz. “Do we already have that information?”
