Five months after the release of a major sea level adaptation study for San Rafael’s most flood-prone neighborhood, the residents that live in the Canal district have released their own vision plan.
It is tied to the city’s climate adaptation planning, with links to the city’s economic development and housing policy, and it explicitly calls out the risk of displacement due to “green gentrification,” which urban planners often avoid or mention superficially.
On Thursday, a resident-led report called the 2026 Canal Neighborhood Snapshot was released by the Canal Alliance, a nonprofit that supports and advocates for Marin County’s Latino community through community engagement and civic participation training. The report, developed through community meetings, surveys and resident leadership programs, is intended to guide a broader neighborhood vision plan expected in 2027.
The Canal is a 2.2-square-mile infilled peninsula and home to a vulnerable community of over 13,000 low-income residents. About 84% are Latino and roughly half of all households are low-income and spend more than 50% of their income on housing. Much of the neighborhood sits below daily high tides, and there is little defense against flooding during storm surges and king tides.
A 2025 sea level rise feasibility study commissioned by the city evaluated options including floodwalls, a tidal gate at the mouth of the canal and large-scale land raising along the shoreline. One alternative in the study would require acquisition and redevelopment of dozens of waterfront properties, displacing occupants of 86 shoreline buildings and potentially forcing permanent relocation of some residents.
Last year, as part of a regional summit addressing climate change, Carly Finkle, senior policy manager at the Canal Alliance, said on a neighborhood tour that much of the dense multifamily housing was not built to withstand floods.
“If a significant amount of water got in from waves that overtop in a big storm or an earthquake that breaks down the informal barriers that are blocking the water out, the amount of water that could be captured and standing in the neighborhood would be so much that buildings would need to be demolished and rebuilt,” said Finkle.
Nuestro Canal, Nuestro Futuro
The report released Thursday is part of an initiative, entitled Nuestro Canal, Nuestro Futuro, which is steered by a 20-member resident advisory council. The work is supported by groups including the Canal Alliance, Community Action Marin, Greenbelt Alliance, Marin Audubon Society, Multicultural Center of Marin, Marin Promise Partnership, the city of San Rafael and Marin County.
Although the engagement is advisory, and the council does not hold final planning decision-making power, its proposals could make their way into final designs.
The report proposes concrete projects, including redeveloping a former bowling alley site at 88 Vivian St. into mixed-use affordable housing with child care, grocery and recreation space; a pedestrian bridge connecting the Canal district to the San Rafael High School area; launching a permanent Latino vendor market; piloting a clean-energy workforce training program; initiating a community air filtration and monitoring program; and expanding support for informal childcare providers and early-learning networks.
The report repeatedly emphasizes anti-displacement protections, warning that new investment and climate adaptation projects could trigger green gentrification if safeguards are not adopted. That threat has propelled nonprofits and leaders to try to include Latino and immigrant voices in the design vision.
In a 1969 study by urban researcher Sherry Arnstein, a seminal paper that is still the cornerstone for planners thinking about citizen participation, community engagement was found to be a practice of powerholders informing residents about projects after major decisions are made. Powerholders do surveys or workshops, while retaining decision-making authority, and true shared governance is rare.
The Canal initiative appears to be a genuine effort to empower residents to define priorities, influence budgets and shape the design of the neighborhood they hope to retain as a community.
“What Nuestro Canal, Nuestro Futuro does is change the structure itself,” said Omar Carrera, chief executive officer of Canal Alliance. “By putting residents in true leadership roles from the beginning, we are reconnecting planning, power and accountability, so community knowledge doesn’t just inform decisions, it drives them.”
