MARIN COUNTY staffers and supervisors took a breath Monday, looked at voter priorities and started strategizing for the 2026-28 budget cycle.
The start of a three-day budget workshop was centered on how the county can deliver services amid the uncertainty of federal and state funding in the face of slowing revenues and an aging population.
According to a Marin County voter survey, housing affordability stands out as the dominant concern, followed by homelessness, wildfire preparedness and disaster resilience.
“We’re seeing slower housing growth compared to our peer counties,” said Marin County Executive Derek Johnson at the meeting. “The good news is that we do have a balanced budget, and we have some limited operating margin,” said Johnson.
According to a county report, as of 2024, Marin County contains approximately 113,000 housing units. Over a 10-year period, Marin’s housing stock grew only 1.6%, compared to 7.3% statewide. Despite a recent 5.4% decrease in home prices, the November 2025 median price for a single-family home remains approximately $1.59 million.
Marin County has one of the Bay Area’s highest shares of cost-burdened renters, according to a county report presented at the meeting. Approximately 56% of renters pay more than 30% of their income toward housing, compared to 54% in Contra Costa County. In San Rafael, for example, rents were approximately $2,900 in 2025.
Pressure on rail and highway infrastructure results from the fact that just 37% of residents work in the county. Most of them commute to San Francisco. In the opposite direction, much of the county’s service workforce commutes in from other counties because they cannot afford to live in Marin County.
Total county revenue is $865,819,432. About a third of the budget goes to the Department of Health and Human Services, which administers CalFresh food stamps, CalWORKS cash aid, Medi-Cal health insurance, disease control programs and homelessness services.
Demographic shifts and immigration pressures
The county reports that over the next 20 years, Marin’s total population is projected to decrease by approximately 2%, while the population aged 65 and older is projected to grow by about 15%. Marin has one of the oldest populations in California. The median age in Marin County is 47.9 years compared to 37.9 statewide. These trends change local demands not only for health care and workforce composition, as well as housing.
“A lot of people are thinking about downsizing, and that’s where they’re starting to look at what a two-bedroom, smaller place might look like,” said Deputy County Executive Linn Walsh. “It’s significantly higher than when they first bought into the market. People would love to have their families live near them, but that younger generation that’s having children right now possibly can’t afford to live in Marin County near their parents.”
Federal and state policy changes were identified as one of the most significant sources of risk for unexpected costs. The Trump administration’s 2025 budget bill, HR1, shifted more costs to states and counties. According to Marin County Health and Human Services, HR1 caused reductions in immigrant emergency care, state insurance subsidies, and cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. State budget deficits and wildfire recovery obligations have also pressured counties to absorb new responsibilities.
The cost of immigrant support services has become another wildcard. Supervisors expressed concern that local immigrant protections could be strained if federal immigration enforcement intensifies.
“We should be aware that should it get escalated, there may be a need for additional funding,” said Supervisor Stephanie Moulton-Peters, emphasizing the risk of being overwhelmed by federal actions.
“We are recommending that the board provide an additional $500,000 in the next fiscal year,” said Talia Smith, interim deputy county executive.
The additional funds would expand the reach and capacity of programs for immigrant support services including legal services, direct support, and investment in the Rapid Response Network, a 24-hour hotline offering support for those who are impacted by immigration enforcement.
“[The Rapid Response Network] brought on 20 multilingual dispatchers, and they receive an average of 20 calls per day and up to 200 calls on days with rumors of ICE presence in the community,” said Smith, adding that deportations can cause families to lose their homes.
“Imagine if the primary income earner of a household is suddenly deported or suddenly detained,” she said. “This impacts your family’s ability to pay rent, to buy groceries, to meet all of your basic needs, and to help stabilize them during what no doubt is a time of tremendous crisis.”
A ‘north star’ for change
For all the reasons above, the county is proposing its first strategic plan in 25 years. Johnson describes the plan as a “north star” guide for investments and policy decisions as the county modernizes systems, launches new planning processes and invests in housing and sea level rise adaptation projects.
“We are going to be doing dozens of first things for the first time in the next few years,” said Johnson. “Not everything will go as planned. That is the nature of real change. Real change happens through trying things. When something does not turn out as intended, we will pivot, we will adjust, and we will be a learning organization.”