WITH FIVE OF SAN JOSE’S 11 City Council seats up for grabs in 2026, the city is gearing up for another busy election year.
As the looming contests begin to come into focus, San José Spotlight has asked several local political observers to discuss the races and election storylines they’ll be following most closely.
They predict a campaign season that heavily features residents’ concerns about affordability. They also said the five races have the potential to tip the delicate balance of power between the city’s opposing political camps of labor and business.
Races to watch
The next 10 months will see races in the city’s odd numbered council districts — 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9. In four of those districts, the incumbents — Rosemary Kamei, Anthony Tordillos, Peter Ortiz and Bien Doan — are running for reelection.
Tordillos won his seat in a June special election after his predecessor, Omar Torres, resigned amid a child sex abuse scandal. Victory in this year’s election would secure for Tordillos his first full term in office.
That leaves District 9 as the only open contest in the city this year, with Vice Mayor Pam Foley terming out. Four candidates have already thrown their hats in the ring to replace her, including Scott Hughes, Foley’s chief of staff, Gordon Chester, a longtime city employee, Genny Altwer, a licensed marriage and family therapist, and local entrepreneur Mike Hennessy.
Meanwhile, candidates have stepped forward to challenge incumbents in two districts.
In District 7, Doan is set to square off against two bitter rivals, East Side Union High School District trustee Van Le and Hanh-Giao Nguyen, a City Hall staffer. The District 5 race appears like it will offer a chance for a rematch between Ortiz and Nora Campos, a former councilmember and state lawmaker who lost to Ortiz in the district’s 2022 election. Local education leader Karen Martinez has also filed paperwork to run for the seat.
The major political organizations queried by San José Spotlight said they haven’t made any firm endorsements yet.
The stakes
Foley has had strong backing from business-aligned groups over her two terms in office. If a labor-backed candidate manages to win her seat, the reversal could throw into question the business-friendly council majority that has helped Mayor Matt Mahan advance his policy agenda, including his plans to reduce street homelessness by expanding the city’s shelter capacity and cracking down on vagrancy.
But some remain skeptical that a major political upheaval is in the cards this year.
“(Mahan) has managed to pull a working majority together, and I suspect he’ll be able to sustain that,” Terry Christensen, San Jose State University political science professor emeritus, told San José Spotlight. “The coming election might help with that in the following year, but he’s got to get through this budget year successfully.”
When the council approved the city’s budget in June, officials projected the deficit would balloon to $52.9 million in the coming year. Such a deep shortfall has once again raised the specter of significant budget cuts, setting the stage for what could be contentious budget talks in the coming months.
Voters’ top issues
San Jose’s homelessness crisis continues to dominate the concerns of residents, according to a public opinion survey released in August. The city-backed poll found 25% of respondents chose the issue as the one they would most like to see City Hall address. Concerns about affordability, public safety and street conditions also loomed large in residents’ minds, the poll found.
For the past five years the city’s annual survey has turned up roughly the same results, with homelessness always topping the list. The coming year could see a reshuffling of voter priorities, however. A number of political watchers said they expect affordability concerns to gain ground in San Jose’s political conversation, as worries over the cost of living continue to deepen.
“Most working families in Silicon Valley are under real economic strain, whether that’s housing costs and groceries or just the ongoing rising expenses that families are having to manage,” Jean Cohen, executive officer of the South Bay Labor Council, told San José Spotlight. “I think (this) year’s elections will be an opportunity for San Jose residents to reflect on whether or not our current leadership is helping to alleviate the crisis that families are struggling with.”
What business leaders want
Affordability concerns, particularly when it comes to housing, also factor into the political thinking for Victor Gomez, who leads the Silicon Valley Business PAC. Gomez said as his organization considers how to direct the roughly $500,000 it plans to raise for this year’s races, he’ll be searching first and foremost for “development-friendly candidates.”
“We need to do better to make it easier to build housing in San Jose,” Gomez told San José Spotlight.
With interest rates expected to decline in the coming year, he said San Jose has a golden opportunity to advance housing projects — and spur the local economy — by lightening the regulatory load for builders.
“We’re having trouble getting these high-rises out of the ground, and the only way you could do that is by having a city who is willing to work with you,” he said.
Energized Democrats
Following demoralizing 2024 election losses, South Bay Democratic leaders said they are hopeful 2026 will bring a reinvigorated party base.
Bill James, chair of the Santa Clara County Democratic Party, pointed to the higher-than-expected turnout in the Nov. 4 special election, which featured Proposition 50 — a ballot measure intended to check President Donald Trump’s hold on Congress.
“I think that (turnout) shows an activist community … that’s really eager to do something proactive and constructive to respond to Trump,” James told San José Spotlight.
James said he expects voter enthusiasm to carry over into the coming year of Democratic grassroots campaigning.
“I think what we’re going to see is a lot of precinct walking and trips out to the Central Valley and beyond in 2026,” he said.
Contact Keith Menconi at keith@sanjosespotlight.com or @KeithMenconi on X.
This story originally appeared in San José Spotlight.