THE HOUSING MARKET is sending mixed messages about whether greater Stockton will be a great place to buy or sell a home in 2025.

On the positive side, one of the major real estate websites, Realtor.com, is moderately bullish about Stockton. It lists the area as 49th out of its top 100 housing markets. The top places are “characterized by moderately affordable homes, abundant inventory — mainly boosted by new construction — and a sizable base of younger families.”

On the less optimistic side, property data firm ATTOM lists San Joaquin County, where Stockton is the county seat, as one of the most “at risk” for significant price declines. It’s one of 13 California counties that is listed as vulnerable, many of them in the Central Valley.

Online real estate marketplace Zillow lists the average price of a home in Stockton at $441,270 — up 2.2% in the past year.

Realtor.com says the South and the West are where it expects the biggest housing growth in 2025. California, however, isn’t listed anywhere near the top. The highest ranked is Riverside-San Bernardino, in 25th place. Next is Ventura in 48th, with Stockton right behind.

The top market in the nation is Colorado Springs, followed by Miami-Fort Lauderdale and Virginia Beach, Virginia. Besides having young families, many in the top 10 are characterized by having large bases nearby or other connections to the military.

Stockton is predicted to have a 6.2% increase in sales of existing homes in 2025 compared to 2024 and a 9.8% increase in average home prices.

More affordable than the Bay Area

Real estate brokers have touted Stockton as an affordable market for homes compared to the Bay Area, where some San Joaquin County locals commute to work.

At the same time, however, ATTOM says San Joaquin County and a dozen other counties in California are vulnerable to pricing downturns based on a number of factors.

They include the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure and those where mortgage balances exceed property values, also known as underwater mortgages. The formula also looks at housing affordability — the percentage of average wages required to pay for a median-priced single-family home — and local unemployment rates.

“An almost unrelenting increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees,” ATTOM said in a statement. “That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others.”

Besides Central California, some housing markets in New York and Chicago were also considered most at risk.

This story originally appeared in Stocktonia.